12/18/2003 -- Since this is the third time we've done this article, most of you already know the drill: This is not a list of the most popular certifications out there (otherwise, Microsoft's MCP title would win every time). Think of this more like Billboard Magazine's Hot 100 Singles chart, which doesn't look at the overall popularity for a song, but the number of positions a song rises on the charts in a given time period. That's what we're trying to predict here -- the fastest-growing certifications for 2004.

Next comes the buzz score: What are people saying about particular certs? What recognition have these titles received recently? What do our contributing editors and columnists think of these credentials? After combing the Web and talking with the experts, we award each certification a buzz score of 1 to 10 (10 being best). Add the reader interest and buzz scores together and our top picks for the hottest certifications of 2004 emerge.

A few things before we start:

• You may notice that a few favorites have fallen off this year's list. The absence of a certification that was present in a previous year doesn't mean that title is any less valuable. Usually, it simply means most of you followed up on your pledge to get that certification over the past year, making it harder for the title to get same reader interest score.
• We're not perfect. While we base these scores on actual research, there's also some semi-intelligent guesswork involved. Take the list for what you think it's worth and be sure to share your picks at the end of this article.
• Although many of you did seem to bookmark this over the past few years, we're still getting requests, so once again, go here for information about RHCE testing in India.

With that out of the way, here are our picks for the 10 hottest certifications for 2004:

#10: Project Management Professional (PMP)
Vendor: Project Management Institute
Reader Interest Score (out of 20): 9
Buzz Score (out of 10): 8
Total: 17

We were pleasantly surprised to see this unique title make the cut. While PMP has always had an excellent reputation (thus the high buzz score), it's often hard for established certifications to enter this list, and PMP is nothing if not established, with a history dating back to 1984. PMP is also difficult to achieve, requiring candidates to meet stringent education and experience requirements before attempting its challenging exam.

More significantly, it's not an IT-specific credential -- project professionals from all industries pursue the PMP. And it's exactly this distinction that seems to make it so appealing for 2004. We all know the current reality of IT job hunting: Employers are demanding more than just tech skills, causing IT professionals to seek ways to document their business savvy. PMP appears to be an excellent choice to meet that need, offering proof of a truly useful "soft skill." As Contributing Editor Kevin Kohut explained, "Talent is easy to find these days...Organizing that talent and managing the budget is a whole different story."

"In today's mixed IT shops," he continued, "without good project management skills you're tweaking buttons, not working with the entire system to find a cohesive solution."

#9: Microsoft Certified Database Administrator (MCDBA)
Vendor: Microsoft
Reader Interest Score: 14
Buzz: 4
Total: 18

While you still don't hear much about this Microsoft certification, among people in the know the buzz continues to grow.

One factor is the increasing use of SQL Server in unexpected places, said Damir Bersinic, CertCities.com contributing editor and database columnist. "Even Oracle shops that generally shied away from Microsoft SQL Server are finding that some of Microsoft's products, as well as those of third parties, are using SQL Server or Microsoft SQL Server Desktop Engine (MSDE) on the back end," he explained. "This means that even Oracle shops need someone with Microsoft certification."

"Microsoft SQL server continues to grow in its install base, and DBAs are needed everywhere," agreed Contributing Editor Andy Barkl, who also pointed out that the MCDBA is appealing for MCSE candidates because "the MCDBA can be achieved while working on a standard MCSE certification."

CertCities.com columnist Don Jones also sees the MCSE connection: "I'm surprised [Microsoft] hasn't re-branded this as 'MCSE: Database Administration' to fit the other new titles they've released; certainly, the exams indicate that this is an administration-heavy, development-light credential, like the other MCSE certs."

Even so, Jones placed the MCDBA at number four on his personal top 10 list. "With SQL Server becoming more important in more organizations, it's an credential that will likely start to see growth soon," he remarked.

#7 (TIE): Certified Information Systems Security Professional (CISSP), Microsoft Certified Systems Engineer: Exchange (MCSE: Messaging)
Vendor: International Information Systems Security Certification Consortium [(ISC)2], Microsoft
Reader Interest Score: 11, 14
Buzz Score: 8, 5
Total: 19

Security continues to run hot, and with the CISSP maintaining its reputation as the premier security title, this credential once again earns a place on this list.

CertCities.com Contributing Editor Greg Neilson placed the CISSP at number two on his personal top 10 list. "It covers material for experienced security practitioners and has a tough exam that expects a great level of detail in a broad range of security areas," he explained.

Contributing Editor Eric Quinn appreciates the title's vendor-neutral approach, saying it "reflect(s) the vendor neutrality preference I believe exists in the corporate marketplace."

Now to our other number seven, MCSE: Messaging. Quite frankly, we weren't expecting this certification to appear just yet, if only because it's been somewhat overshadowed by the other new credentials Microsoft debuted in 2003 (as you'll see later in this article). Then came your reader interest score and the ringing endorsements of our contributing editors.

"I think this exam will do well," commented Jones. "The exams involved in this cert have always existed, but it's a good track. With the popularity of Exchange as a messaging system, it's valuable for IT pros to be able to define themselves as a messaging specialist."

Barkl agreed that the certification fills a real need for network professionals: "Microsoft Exchange servers are everywhere these days, and they are often mismanaged and misunderstood for all they can offer and support."

Quinn said that despite favoring a Linux surge next year, he thinks this Windows messaging title will do well. "As much as I believe that it won't take much for Linux to take bigger bites out of the Windows server market, that really only applies toward file, print and Web services," he explained. "I think e-mail is the current 'killer app' of almost any network, meaning that its removal will greatly impact how usable users view the network. Given its importance, I don't think that any e-mail certification is out of place here, especially a Microsoft-based cert."

We get the message.

#6: Microsoft Certified Desktop Support Technician (MCDST)
Vendor: Microsoft
Reader Interest Score: 14
Buzz Score: 6
Total: 20

Now, here's a Microsoft title we did expect to see. Jones calls MCDST "the most important certification of 2003," explaining, "With this cert, Microsoft has finally achieved a three-tier support staff that incorporates the help desk, administrator and designer/engineer."

"The MCDST opens up the world of Microsoft certification to what has perhaps been the largest and most overlooked segment of our industry," he continued. "Companies with a heavy investment in Microsoft products can now look for certifications at every level of their IT department, ensuring a minimal level of knowledge and expertise across the Microsoft product line."

Neilson also gives the MCDST high praise, placing it at number four on his personal list. "I expect that there will be a rapid take-up of the MCDST certification," he said. "The medium-term outlook for IT careers is somewhat uncertain at the moment, so I think that those in early stages of their IT career will be wanting to differentiate themselves from the pack."

Barkl remarked that the title's accessibility is exactly what will make the uptake so rapid. "The MCDST will be popular this year just because it's a new Microsoft certification and only requires the candidate pass two exams," he stated.

#5: Red Hat Certified Engineer
Vendor: Red Hat
Reader Interest Score: 14
Buzz Score: 7
Total: 21

While other Linux certifications have fallen off the list this year, RHCE is holding strong thanks to its hands-on lab exam and the popularity of Red Hat's products.

Quinn places it at the top of his personal list because he sees newfound corporate appeal for the title. "IBM managed to get a version of Linux C2 certified this year. While this doesn't mean that Red Hat's version is also C2 (the certification is achieved on a per vendor, per configuration basis), the Red Hat certification is the biggest one for Linux and I don't think that many hiring managers will understand the difference. I know that there are many people in U.S. that would love to be able to use one or another flavor of Linux for various projects, and the NSA certifications mean a lot."

Bersinic also thinks the RHCE will do well next year, stating: "The RHCE is still strong because Red Hat is the top player in the market." However, he cautioned that, "Novell buying SuSE may cut into that lead."

#4: Cisco Certified Network Professional (CCNP)
Vendor: Cisco Systems
Reader Interest Score: 16
Buzz Score: 6
Total: 22

Sure, Cisco's entry-level CCNA dropped off this list after two years running, but only because so many of you achieved the title during 2003. With the CCNP being the next certification for most, it makes sense that CCNP retains such high reader interest. Cisco's constant refreshing of the exams, including adding more hands-on simulation questions, doesn't hurt the title's appeal.

Most every contributing editor placed the CCNP somewhere on their personal top 10 list, although Barkl pointed out, "The unfortunate fact is many candidates give up before achieving this goal. Perhaps they believe the hype and think they should have a cushy network job just because they have passed one test, the CCNA. There's always more to learn!"

#2 (TIE): Cisco Certified Internetwork Engineer (CCIE), Security+
Vendor: Cisco, Computing Technology Industry Association (CompTIA)
Reader Interest Score: 15, 17
Buzz Score: 9, 7
Total: 24

Let's start with Security+. Although many of you obtained this title in 2003, even more of you said you'll be adding it to your resume next year, allowing it to retain its number two spot.

Security+ ranks is Neilson's top pick 2004 because, "it covers general topics that are applicable for all of us working in IT."

Barkl also gives the title high praise:"Security designations are still in high demand by certification candidates. The CompTIA Security+ certification is becoming more and more popular as time goes by. As an intro level security certification, it requires a baseline of knowledge to expand from."

Although not all of our contributors agree. Jones said he thinks Security+ is "a little too simplistic. The cert will likely do well simply because of the CompTIA name, but I think the treatment of security as an entry-level topic is probably misleading."

Now we come to last year's winner, Cisco's CCIE. Because of its grueling, hands-on lab exam, the CCIE continues to be one of the (if not the) most respected IT certifications, and its buzz score reflects that. However, the reader interest score dipped just enough for next year to force this leader to settle for second place.

Not that this makes the title any less desirable. "Cisco CCIE certification hasn't lost any ground," commented Barkl. "It's considered a top level achievement and is still respected by those who have it, and those who don't."

#1: MCSE: Security
Vendor: Microsoft
Reader Interest Score: 18
Buzz Score: 7
Total: 25

When Microsoft announced this title in June, it wasn't without some controversy. While most everyone was glad to see the company release a security-specific title, some were hoping for a more rigorous credential, rather than a specialization that simply requires MCSE candidates select two security exams as part of their electives.

The mixed reaction is reflected in the comments of our contributing editors. "For the Microsoft world, the MCSE: Security is an important one. This means that any MCSE out there better get this one on their resume ASAP," said Bersinic.

But others aren't so sure. Jones, for one, said he is "not a fan...mainly because it brings together separate exams rather than creating new content."

"If Microsoft wants to play in the enterprise security world," he continued, "it needs a cert that tests at a higher level for the 'minimally qualified candidate'; I don't think the world at large wants a Microsoft security certification that's designed for a person with only one year of experience."

Even with some detractors, MCSE: Security's accessibility combined with your massive reader interest score is just enough to earn it the title of Hottest Certification for 2004. And we think it's an accurate prediction. As Neilson put it, "MCSE: Security will grow quickly since new folks who are already working toward their MCSE will likely choose their electives accordingly to get this specialization."

So there it is: Our picks for the top 10 hottest certifications of 2004. Be sure to let us know your predictions by posting below!

More articles by Becky Nagel:

• CertCities.com’s 10 Hottest Certifications for 2006
  
• 10 Hottest Certifications for 2005
  
• CertCities.com's 3rd Annual Readers' Choice Awards
  
• Q&A: Novell Certs Go Linux